Poll: Dems trump GOP in trial heat for Voinovich seat
Pollsters exploring how the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Ohio Republican George Voinovich might shape up have identified potential Democrat contenders leading the GOP pack. But they’re cautioning the Democrats’ higher name recognition and the afterglow of the “Obama honeymoon” might not last into 2010 when the race will be held.
The examination by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute was sparked by Voinovich’s January announcement that he won’t seek re-election to a third term next year. In the poll, Quinnipiac asked Ohioans who they might favor among the politicians who either have thrown their names into the ring or who might surface as candidates – former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor, both Republicans; and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, all Democrats.
In a Republican primary, Portman would gather a third of support from the 1,127 voters surveyed between Jan. 29 and Monday, while Taylor received 11 percent backing, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical Democratic primary, each of the three politicians identified received between 14 percent and 18 percent of the vote, with Fisher on top. As in the Republican primary question, more than half of the voters replied they were undecided on their preferences.
Though most of the voters acknowledged they hadn’t made up their minds on primary candidates, that didn’t stop Quinnipiac from asking about early favorites in the November 2010 general election: Democrats Fisher and Brunner were seen as more popular than Portman or Taylor, both of the GOP.
“Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland’s high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily,” Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s polling institute, said in a release. “But Republicans should not be disheartened by these numbers. We are still in the Obama honeymoon period and both Fisher and Brunner are known almost twice as well statewide as Portman and Taylor.”
Democrats on top in early look at 2010 Ohio Senate Race,
Quinnipac University Poll finds:
Few voters know much about any Candidates
In an early look at the 2010 Republican primary for the Ohio U.S. Senate seat being vacated by George Voinovich, former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman holds a 33 – 11 percent lead over State Auditor Mary Taylor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Both Republicans trail either of the two leading Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, by almost identical double-digit margins.
In a possible Democratic primary, Fisher, Brunner and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan each get from 14 to 18 percent of the vote and more than half of the Democratic electorate is undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In trial heats between the leading Democratic and Republican Senate candidates, Fisher defeats Portman 42 – 27 percent, with 29 percent undecided. Fisher tops Taylor by almost an identical 41 – 27 percent margin. Brunner prevails by smaller margins, 38 – 28 percent over Portman and 38 – 26 percent over Taylor.
“Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland’s high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily, and it shows in the early Senate numbers,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But Republicans should not be disheartened by these numbers. We are still in the Obama honeymoon period and both Fisher and Brunner are known almost twice as well statewide as Portman and Taylor.
“Moreover, four in 10 independent voters – the folks who likely will decide the election –are undecided at this point,” said Brown.
If Brunner decides not to seek the Senate seat and runs for reelection as Ohio’s Secretary of State, she would defeat Republican Jon Husted in a mythical matchup 42 – 25 percent. Here too three in 10 voters are undecided.
Although he has been active in Ohio politics for almost 30 years, been elected state Attorney General and lost the 1998 governorship by the smallest margin in state history, Lt. Gov. Fisher is relatively unknown to the voting public. A third of voters view him favorably, 10 percent unfavorably and 55 percent say they don’t know enough about him to make a decision.
“That large a number of people who can’t rate Fisher is surprising and a potential problem for him if he chooses to run. He’s been around so long, and just doesn’t seem to have left that many footprints in the snow, in the minds of voters,” said Brown. “By comparison, Brunner, elected statewide for the first time in 2006, has almost identical favorability and unfavorability numbers to Fisher.”
Portman, whose name was mentioned last summer as a possible running mate for Republican presidential nominee John McCain, is a former U.S. trade representative, a cabinet level post, and also was director of the federal office of Management and Budget. But outside of his Cincinnati-area district he is not that well known, with 21 percent of Ohioans viewing him favorably, 6 percent unfavorably and 72 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an impression of him. He is somewhat better known than State Auditor Taylor, who is viewed favorably by 17 percent, unfavorably by 5 percent with 78 percent who don’t know enough to rate her.
Tim Ryan, the Congressman who runs even with Fisher and Brunner in a Democratic Senate primary, is the least known of any of the candidates, with 12 percent viewing him favorably, 3 percent unfavorably and 84 percent with no opinion.
Pollsters exploring how the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Ohio Republican George Voinovich might shape up have identified potential Democrat contenders leading the GOP pack. But they’re cautioning the Democrats’ higher name recognition and the afterglow of the “Obama honeymoon” might not last into 2010 when the race will be held.
The examination by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute was sparked by Voinovich’s January announcement that he won’t seek re-election to a third term next year. In the poll, Quinnipiac asked Ohioans who they might favor among the politicians who either have thrown their names into the ring or who might surface as candidates – former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman and state Auditor Mary Taylor, both Republicans; and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan and Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, all Democrats.
In a Republican primary, Portman would gather a third of support from the 1,127 voters surveyed between Jan. 29 and Monday, while Taylor received 11 percent backing, according to the poll.
In a hypothetical Democratic primary, each of the three politicians identified received between 14 percent and 18 percent of the vote, with Fisher on top. As in the Republican primary question, more than half of the voters replied they were undecided on their preferences.
Though most of the voters acknowledged they hadn’t made up their minds on primary candidates, that didn’t stop Quinnipiac from asking about early favorites in the November 2010 general election: Democrats Fisher and Brunner were seen as more popular than Portman or Taylor, both of the GOP.
“Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland’s high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily,” Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s polling institute, said in a release. “But Republicans should not be disheartened by these numbers. We are still in the Obama honeymoon period and both Fisher and Brunner are known almost twice as well statewide as Portman and Taylor.”
Democrats on top in early look at 2010 Ohio Senate Race,
Quinnipac University Poll finds:
Few voters know much about any Candidates
In an early look at the 2010 Republican primary for the Ohio U.S. Senate seat being vacated by George Voinovich, former U.S. Rep. Rob Portman holds a 33 – 11 percent lead over State Auditor Mary Taylor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Both Republicans trail either of the two leading Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, by almost identical double-digit margins.
In a possible Democratic primary, Fisher, Brunner and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan each get from 14 to 18 percent of the vote and more than half of the Democratic electorate is undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.
In trial heats between the leading Democratic and Republican Senate candidates, Fisher defeats Portman 42 – 27 percent, with 29 percent undecided. Fisher tops Taylor by almost an identical 41 – 27 percent margin. Brunner prevails by smaller margins, 38 – 28 percent over Portman and 38 – 26 percent over Taylor.
“Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland’s high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily, and it shows in the early Senate numbers,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “But Republicans should not be disheartened by these numbers. We are still in the Obama honeymoon period and both Fisher and Brunner are known almost twice as well statewide as Portman and Taylor.
“Moreover, four in 10 independent voters – the folks who likely will decide the election –are undecided at this point,” said Brown.
If Brunner decides not to seek the Senate seat and runs for reelection as Ohio’s Secretary of State, she would defeat Republican Jon Husted in a mythical matchup 42 – 25 percent. Here too three in 10 voters are undecided.
Although he has been active in Ohio politics for almost 30 years, been elected state Attorney General and lost the 1998 governorship by the smallest margin in state history, Lt. Gov. Fisher is relatively unknown to the voting public. A third of voters view him favorably, 10 percent unfavorably and 55 percent say they don’t know enough about him to make a decision.
“That large a number of people who can’t rate Fisher is surprising and a potential problem for him if he chooses to run. He’s been around so long, and just doesn’t seem to have left that many footprints in the snow, in the minds of voters,” said Brown. “By comparison, Brunner, elected statewide for the first time in 2006, has almost identical favorability and unfavorability numbers to Fisher.”
Portman, whose name was mentioned last summer as a possible running mate for Republican presidential nominee John McCain, is a former U.S. trade representative, a cabinet level post, and also was director of the federal office of Management and Budget. But outside of his Cincinnati-area district he is not that well known, with 21 percent of Ohioans viewing him favorably, 6 percent unfavorably and 72 percent who haven’t heard enough to form an impression of him. He is somewhat better known than State Auditor Taylor, who is viewed favorably by 17 percent, unfavorably by 5 percent with 78 percent who don’t know enough to rate her.
Tim Ryan, the Congressman who runs even with Fisher and Brunner in a Democratic Senate primary, is the least known of any of the candidates, with 12 percent viewing him favorably, 3 percent unfavorably and 84 percent with no opinion.
From January 29 – February 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,127 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 492 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, and 374 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
